01 / Working with data
Actual above forecast: why price direction is still unknown
Release time, retrieval time and reference period answer different questions. Read a release without false precision.
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FINBORS ACADEMY
From observation to a system.
Core workshops and an exercise on the next release: what to look for, common mistakes and how to test an idea.
PRACTICE WITH THE CURRENT CALENDAR
Prepare for the next release
The event is selected automatically from the FINBORS calendar and advances after its scheduled time. This is an exercise, not a recommendation to trade.
RBA · Christopher Kent · speech
19 Oct 2026, 02:05 · MSK · Reserve Bank of Australia ↗
- Open the original source. Check the date, timezone, reference period and review date.
- Record the previous value and the sourced consensus. If consensus is unavailable, record “no data”, not the previous reading.
- Before the release, define a risk limit and reasons to skip. Afterwards compare actual with consensus, separately noting revisions and spread changes.
The exercise uses events from the current economic calendar.
02 / Working with data
Inflation slowed. Does that mean prices fell?
The annual rate can fall while the price index keeps rising. Separate the price level, monthly change and annual comparison.
Read the workshop →03 / Indicators
MACD turns up. Why might a buy still be premature?
The indicator crosses up, but the price keeps falling. What did the crossover actually show?
Read the workshop →04 / Price action
Market structure: where a buying idea stops making sense
Three rising candles do not settle whether to buy. First find the level below which the continuation idea fails.
Read the workshop →05 / Indicators
ATR: is there room for a normal price fluctuation?
After a gap, True Range is 8 but ATR14 is about 2.43. Why is that consistent, and why does an average range not promise a safe stop?
Read the workshop →06 / Risk
Position size: define the loss before the quantity
The same entry can represent moderate or excessive risk. Quantity often makes the difference.
Read the workshop →07 / Risk
A stop starts with invalidation, not a convenient distance
A protective level defines a plan, not a fill price. Explore a price gap and the difference between stop and stop-limit orders using invented shares.
Read the workshop →08 / Risk
Expectancy: connecting win frequency and outcome size
A 70% win rate sounds convincing, but occasional large losses can still make the overall result negative.
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